Disturbing the Deep: Mapping Arctic Sedimentary Blue Carbon at the Intersection of Climate Change and Industry

Abstract

Understanding the current distribution of sedimentary organic carbon stocks in the Arctic Ocean is critical to properly assessing the potential climate impacts of Arctic industrial activity. Current understanding and mapping is focused on individual regions and is often secondary to the primary research objective. With increasing interest in the Arctic, especially for activities such as bottom trawling and drilling, understanding the current state of Arctic Ocean carbon stocks should be a stronger focus. Ocean sediments are one of the few stable long-term carbon sinks, making their preservation a conservation priority, necessitating a better understanding of the quantity and distribution. This study (1) conducts a partial systematic literature review of current research on Arctic Ocean stored organic carbon through the lens of national and international territories and (2) maps stored sedimentary organic carbon distribution with areas of potential Arctic industrial activity. The mapping portion aims to map Total Organic Carbon distribution and quantify potential areas of conflict between high organic carbon storage areas and identified areas of current and future industrial activity, aiming to increase understanding of this and contribute to our assessment of how Arctic industrial activity may disturb sediments, potentially releasing carbon into the atmosphere, or damage sedimentary carbon storage capacity. This study found that multiple Arctic Nation Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) store 34 – 46% of their TOC within less than 30% of the region’s area. This is particularly important when combined with National Arctic Strategy analysis given that the most carbon-rich EEZs, particularly Norway, Russia, and the United States, show a strong spatial overlap between carbon-rich sediments and with current and potential industrial activity. Nearly 70% of the Norwegian EEZ experiences bottom trawling, while potential drilling areas in the American EEZ cover over 55% of the EEZ. Understanding the potential climate impacts of industrial activity, particularly in the Arctic that is warming at quadruple the speed of other regions, is critical yet currently infeasible given the very limited data.