The Unequal Impact of Lethal Heatwaves in India for Males and Females: Insights from Climate Projection Data

Abstract

As climate change accelerates, extreme heatwaves pose increasing risks in India, with differential impacts across gender and age groups. Using data from the World Bank Climate Knowledge Portal and CMIP6 models, we obtained time-series data for relative humidity and mean surface air temperature (1990-2100) across SSPs (1-1.9 to 5-8.5) and calculated the heat index using the Rothfusz formula, incorporating uncertainty bounds from median, 10th, and 90th percentiles. Heat index maps visualised variations across SSPs. Cooling energy demand was estimated using population projections (2020-2100) for males and females, alongside historical sales data for ceiling fans and air conditioners, weighted by energy consumption factors. Contour plots showed the relationship between heat index, energy consumption, and age-wise gender differences, showing that cooling energy demand increases with age and higher heat index values. Scatter plots revealed heat index fluctuations driving energy demand, while correlation plots linked Cooling Degree Days (CDD) to gender-based variations. Gender disparities in cooling demand are primarily socioeconomic, reflecting differential access to cooling technologies rather than physiological differences. These findings highlight the unequal impact of heatwaves, especially on the elderly, and can inform India’s Cooling Action Plan by prioritising subsidies for vulnerable populations to enhance resilience. Clarifying these disparities supports nuanced climate adaptation strategies addressing rising energy needs and vulnerabilities associated with extreme heat.