Climate Change as a Risk Multiplier of Displacement in the Northern Triangle of Central America

Abstract

How does climate change act as a risk multiplier of displacement in the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA)? The NTCA countries—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—are defined by their geographic proximity and similar political, security, socio-demographic, socio-economic, and climatic contexts. They also sit at the nexus of the climate and migration crises, with both the impacts of climate change and migration trends from and within the NTCA subregion having increased in recent years and which projections indicate will increase further in the years to come. However, there is a dearth of research within academic literature that examines the causal relationship between climate change and migration in the NTCA countries. Of the limited scholarship that exists, studies primarily focus on Central America more broadly. This article offers a preliminary attempt to address this research gap by demonstrating how climate change acts as a risk multiplier of displacement, both internal and cross-border, across the NTCA countries. The article concludes with policy recommendations for decision-makers to consider to more comprehensively address the climate-migration nexus in the NTCA subregion.