Navigating the Green Transition: How the Global South Can Leverage Geopolitical Competition for Green Development

Abstract

The Global South is central to the success or failure of the global response to climate change. Yet whether Southern countries can pursue green transformation on their own terms, rather than supplying resources and absorbing costs for wealthier economies, remains an open question. This paper focuses specifically on the green-industrial transformation, the process by which states redirect industrial capacity toward low-carbon sectors and clean energy technologies in order to transition away from fossil fuel dependence. It examines whether contemporary "polyalignment"–selective engagement with multiple competing powers–can be a promising strategy for countries in the Global South to accelerate their green industrial transformation. Achieving green industrial transformation requires long-horizon planning and active state coordination. The analysis identifies four mechanisms through which polyalignment either fragments or reinforces green-industrial planning: (i) conditioning access to strategic nodes on domestic value creation, (ii) leveraging creditor rivalry to soften financial discipline, (iii) building cross-regime regulatory compatibility, and (iv) disciplining domestic coalition formation around external partnerships. Four illustrative case studies (Indonesia's nickel sector, India's solar financing, Brazil's ethanol exports, and South Africa's renewable energy procurement) are selected to trace these four mechanisms across varying sectoral, regional, and geopolitical contexts. This paper argues that while polyalignment fragments the severity of external constraints placed on Southern states, thereby expanding room for manoeuvre, it only leads to lasting green industrial transformation when governments possess sufficient state capacity to convert multiple partnerships into a coherent industrial strategy. Polyalignment shifts the developmental challenge from accessing partners to governing partnerships, intensifying coordination demands precisely when decarbonisation requires long-horizon planning. Polyalignment amplifies rather than resolves the consequences of state capacity for Southern green transformation.